How high will Bitcoin's price go? Forecast for 2025 after surpassing $100,000

Posted on 2025-05-15

Bitcoin Surges Past $100,000 Amid Favorable Regulatory and Economic Conditions

Bitcoin has once again captured the spotlight by climbing above the $100,000 mark, in a climate of high market volatility and global uncertainty shaped by trade tensions and evolving regulations.

As of 9 a.m. ET this Friday, the world’s leading cryptocurrency was trading at $104,320, with a market capitalization reaching $2.07 trillion.

This 2025 price surge is the result of multiple converging factors. According to Matías Bari, CEO and co-founder of cryptocurrency exchange Satoshi Tango, the rally is driven by the delayed impact of the last halving, the U.S. Federal Reserve’s decision to maintain steady interest rates, and a wave of pro-crypto policies from the current U.S. administration.

Investor appetite for risk assets has also been reignited following a recent U.S.–China agreement to temporarily reduce tariffs for 90 days. The U.S. will lower its combined tariffs on Chinese imports from 145% to 30%, while China will reduce its tariffs on U.S. goods from 125% to 10%.

These developments have weakened the U.S. dollar’s position as a traditional safe haven, pushing more aggressive investors toward bitcoin. Germán Eduardo Rodríguez Díaz, analyst and professor of economics at Universidad de América in Colombia, noted that bitcoin is now playing a broader role in the global financial system, beyond that of a pure safe-haven asset.

Since April 10, bitcoin has resumed an upward trend after falling below $75,000 in early March. Earlier in the year, it hit a new all-time high of $109,000, just ahead of Donald Trump’s presidential inauguration.

Regulatory Clarity and ETF Momentum Fuel Growth

A major catalyst behind bitcoin’s continued momentum is the increasingly favorable regulatory environment, particularly in the U.S., which has boosted institutional confidence.

The landmark approval of bitcoin exchange-traded funds (ETFs) by the U.S. Securities and Exchange Commission (SEC) in January 2024 has marked a turning point. Since BlackRock’s launch of its iShares Bitcoin Trust (IBIT), bitcoin has gained greater legitimacy in traditional financial markets.

According to Bloomberg Intelligence, between late April and early May 2025, bitcoin ETFs saw net inflows of $1.8 billion. A report from Coinbase Institutional cited by Bloomberg also revealed that since their launch, spot bitcoin ETFs have attracted approximately $39 billion in net flows, holding a combined 1.14 million BTC as of March 31, 2025.

Scarcity, Halving, and Price Outlook

Another key driver is the April 2024 halving event, which cut mining rewards in half and contributed to a tightening of bitcoin’s supply. Historically, such events have helped push prices upward by limiting the issuance of new coins.

With around 19.8 million BTC already mined out of a total supply of 21 million, the remaining supply is shrinking fast. The limited availability, coupled with growing institutional demand, creates favorable conditions for a price rise.

“This reduced market supply (1.8 million BTC) compared to a stronger, more dynamic demand could push bitcoin to retest the $109,000 resistance level by mid-year,” said Rodríguez Díaz. He added that the price could potentially climb toward $150,000 or even $200,000 by the end of 2025 if current trends continue.

Still, analysts caution that forecasts should be viewed in the context of bitcoin’s inherent volatility. Its price remains sensitive to global macroeconomic shifts, regulatory changes, and geopolitical developments.

“As always, any major macro or political event can reshape the market landscape in a matter of seconds,” Bari emphasized.